Thoughts on Trump’s Chances

Donald Trump is driving record turnout in these Republican primaries. If I’m on the Democratic side, especially Hillary Clinton, that worries me.

The excitement on the Democratic side is not as high as it was in 2008. Black people aren’t going to turn out like they did before. Turnout for the Dems overall won’t be as high either. Voter ID laws are going to make some kind of impact. And for all the GOP establishment’s hatred of Donald Trump, a lot of them are going to support him over Hillary.

Add the fact that Trump does well with independents, and the fact that Hillary has a major trust issue within her own party, and you have a major problem for the Democrats in November. The craziest thing about all this is that none of the pundits on TV and the web, including Fox News, thought that Trump would make it this far, let alone be leading by a mile. The other candidates are afraid to even attack him.

One more thing, this email scandal is actually getting pretty serious. It’s not inconceivable that Hillary or people close to her get indicted. If that happens, the country really might have Donald J. Trump as its President. And that would be so unfortunate.

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